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美版知乎:中国的崛起是否势不可挡

 人参与  2018-12-02 11:28  分类 : 澳门足球陪率  点这评论

Is China's rise inevitable?

中国崛起是否势不可挡?

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QUORA网站读者评论: 译者:Joyceliu

Doug Asbury, I have a friend who teaches international relations in Korea

The idea of “China’s rise” is a concept that functions primarily in the realm of international relations between nation states. It is mostly of interest in terms of political influence and economic strength, supported to some degree by military strength, but not heavily dependent upon it.

When I look at what occurred in the 20th Century, I see that an industrial revolution that began in certain parts of the world in the 18th Century progressed in the West and in certain other parts of the world that western nations had colonized during the 19th Century; so that when World War I came along and was heavily dependent upon industrial strength to produce the armaments that won it, it became clear to the major nations of the world that industrialization was a more important area in which to focus the nation’s energies than it ever had been before.

“中国崛起”这个概念主要存在于民族国家间的国际关系领域。它主要涉及政治影响力和经济实力,在某种程度上由澳门足球陪率力量扶持,但不严重依赖澳门足球陪率力量。

当我回顾20世纪发生的事情时,我发现始于18世纪的世界某些地方的工业革命在西方以及在19世纪西方国家的某些殖民地取得了进展,因此第一次世界大战来临后,世界主要国家非常依赖工业力量来生产军备,因此它们清楚地认识到,工业化是比以往任何时候都更加需要集中精力的领域。

All that said, it is important to consider what made the United States the economic and political leader it became in the latter part of the 20th Century. A major factor is the industrialization that was required to mobilize the country to fight in World War II and to be part of victories in both Europe and the Pacific. After that conflict, also, the U.S. was the primary area that had been involved in the war that was not itself devastated to a major extent by that war. Our industries were not only intact; they were larger than they ever had been. So many of our male citizens had been involved in the war, they needed jobs when they returned; and the government paid for their higher education as well, qualifying them for other than the often physically challenging agricultural work. (In addition, agricultural work became more mechanized, so that there was not such a great need for many people to work a typical farm. Migrant labor, also, provided adequate personnel for seasonal work; and that was often supplied by non-US residents.) Beyond this, our helping rebuild Europe through the Marshall Plan and the need to continue building things to maintain our military strength against the “rise” of the Soviet Union and, to a lesser extent,

尽管如此,重要的是要思考一下,是什么使得美国成为20世纪后半叶的经济和政治领袖。一个主要的因素是,这个国家需要工业化来参加第二次世界大战,在欧洲和太平洋取得胜利。美国是这场战争的主要参与国,但美国本身并没有受到这场战争的大规模破坏。我们的工业不仅完好无损,而且比以前更壮大。我们的许多男性公民都卷入了战争,他们回国后需要工作;政府也支付了他们的高等教育费用,使他们能够胜任除了需要体力的农业工作之外的其他工作。(此外,农业工作变得更加机械化,许多人不需要在典型的农场工作。此外,移民劳工也为季节性工作提供了足够的劳动力,大多数情况下都是非美国居民劳作。)除此之外,我们还通过马歇尔计划帮助重建欧洲,并继续建设维持我们的澳门足球陪率实力,抵御苏联“崛起”的武器。

Overall, though, a major factor that contributed to all this growth in the power and development of the United States as the “unipolar power” in the world (following the collapse of the Soviet Union around 1990) was the industrialization of agriculture. Whereas at the beginning of the 20th Century, U.S. farm population was just under 40% of the nation’s workforce, by 2000, the farm workforce was just under 3% of the population. This move from rural to urban/suburban life focused the U.S. workforce on the production of goods and services that would return a higher value to the producer than that returned through production of food. Food production has become such a low-margin activity that it has necessitated that U.S. producers mechanize to the highest level possible, and those producers have also been easily challenged and even crowded out of certain markets by producers in other countries whose costs are so low, even higher packaging and shipping costs can be borne by those producers in order for them to make a profit while still undercutting the costs - and prices - of U.S. producers.

I point this out, because what is happening in China in the 21st Century is very similar to what happened in the United States over the span of the 20th Century; that is, more and more people are moving from rural, agricultural life to industrialized - and financialized - city life; so that more of China’s citizens are focused on creating goods and services that have a higher return for their producers than do agricultural goods; and slowly, even China’s agricultural system is upgrading to meet the increased demand that it produce the food required by the billion-plus citizens of their nation.

然而,总的来说,促成美国成为全球“独角兽大国”的所有力量的增长和发展的主要因素是农业工业化。而在20世纪初,美国农业人口不足全国劳动力的40%,到2000年,农业劳动力仅占到全国人口的不足3%。这种从农村向城市/郊区的转变,使美国劳动力集中在商品制造业和服务业,这将使生产者获得比生产粮食生产可获的价值更高的回报。粮食生产已成为一种利润率极低的生产活动,必须使美国生产者机械化达到尽可能高的水平,而且这些生产者也很容易受到其他国家生产者的竞争,甚至被排挤出某些市场,这些国家的生产成本非常低,这些生产商甚至会承担包装和运输成本,有利可赚的情况下依然能够做到低于美国生产商的成本和价格。

我指出这一点,是因为21世纪中国发生的事情与20世纪美国发生的事情非常相似,也就是说,越来越多的人正从农村、农业生活转向工业化和金融化的城市生活;中国公民集中精力创造比农产品生产回报更高的商品和服务;与此同时中国的农业系统也在逐步升级,以满足不断增长的需求,即生产十亿多中国公民所需的食品。

Long story short: China has been playing “catch-up” over the last half-century or so with countries, both Western and Pacific, that industrialized and financialized years before; and with the largest population of any nation on earth (at this time, anyway, though India is on track to pass it in terms of population in the next couple of decades), it is inevitable that China will become increasingly influential in the world.

The question is not whether China’s rise is inevitable; it is, “As China becomes an ever more powerful nation in the world economically and politically, what can be done by other nations to ensure that its increased power is used for the benefit of other nations of the world in addition to its own benefit and that it doesn’t abuse that power?” The answer to that question is one on which many nations of the world are currently working; and depending upon whom one consults, the prospects either look dire or rosy. Let’s hope the rosy scenarios prevail!

长话短说:在过去半个世纪左右的时间里,中国一直在“追赶”多年前实现了工业化和金融化的西方和太平洋国家;中国是世界上人口最多的国家(目前还是,尽管印度的人口在未来几十年有望超过中国),中国在世界上的影响力将不可避免地越来越大。

问题不在于中国的崛起是否不可避免;“随着中国在经济上和政治上逐渐成为世界大国,其他国家能做些什么来确保其不断增长的实力能够在满足自己利益的同时,不会滥用这种力量,而是造福世界其他国家呢?”这个问题是世界上许多国家目前正在努力解决的;根据被问询对象的不同,他们对此问题的预期或黯淡或乐观。让我们希望乐观的看法能占据上风吧!


Sam Arora, Life long student of Chinese history, culture, food, arts

My grandmother used to tell me a story the endpoint was: A pigeon cannot escape death by closing his/her eyes when the cat is coming towards him/her. China’s rise is per sure inevitable, rest of the world is just closing its eyes and believe this cat is fake and he/she will pass. No sir/madam: This cat is real and it is, in fact, a huge dragon.

At some stage, the world has to learn that this growth is real and must learn to respect and learn from this mega-success story.

BTW: The Author is not Chinese, and he has not hired the hand to do publicity, he is Indo Canadian citizen of Canada for the close to fifty years. He has worked with the Chinese Canadians at various levels and visited China several times. And when he was a baby in India from his childhood he was very interested in China and the Chinese culture. His primary school teacher sowed the seeds in him about China.

This is a dawn of new era: You want to see future please go to China, there you will get an idea, how the future will look, by standing at the present time, and one glance backward to developing China will show you the past.

Standing in the present: You will see the future and you will see the past.

我的祖母曾经给我讲过一个故事,故事的结局是:当猫朝着鸽子靠近时,鸽子闭上眼睛也逃不开死亡的结局。中国的崛起是不可避免的,世界其他国家只是闭上眼睛,认为这只猫是不存在的,他/她会走开。不,先生/女士:这只猫是真实存在的,实际上还是条巨龙。

在某个时候,世界必须认识到这种增长是真实的,必须从中国的成功故事中学会尊重并吸取经验。

顺便说一下,笔者并非中国人,他是年近50的加拿大印裔公民。他同不同层次的加拿大华人合作过,多次访问中国。当他孩提时候生活在印度时,他就对中国和中国文化非常感兴趣。他的小学老师在他心中播下了中国文化的种子。

这是一个新时代的黎明:如果你想看看未来的样子,请去中国,在那里你会了解到未来会是什么样子,立足现在,回首发展中的中国,你会看到过去。

站在现在:你能看到未来,也能看到过去。

 

 

Anonymous

If you look at Chinese history over the past thousands years, you would appreciate that it would be a good thing for China to be one of the superpower in the world.

China has never invaded other countries through out its thousands years history, except some small borders wars here and there.

When China was strong, whole world, especially the East Asia enjoyed peace and prosperity. When China was weak, the world, especially the East Asia were in chaos and wars.

It is inevitable for China to rise:

1) Chinese people and philosophy

2) People around the world are happy and supporting Chinese rise peacefully, surely the US wants to keep its hegemony in the world to incites some conflicts around China, but all those countries know the US' intention and thus keep neutral and keep watching US' solo action.

如果你回顾中国几千年的历史,你会意识到中国成为世界超级大国是一件好事。

中国几千年的历史中,从来没有侵略过其他国家,只发生过零星几场边界战争。

中国强盛时,整个世界特别是东亚都和平繁荣。当中国衰败的时候,整个世界尤其是东亚,都处于混乱和战争之中。

中国的崛起是不可避免的:

1) 中国人与中国哲学

2) 世界各国人民都很乐意、很支持中国的和平崛起,美国当然希望保持其在世界上的霸权地位,在中国周边挑起一些冲突,但这些国家都知道美国的意图,因此保持中立,时刻关注美国的单独行动。

China has become what it is today by one generation of "under educated people". The new Chinese generation is well educated and can compete with any nation in the world stage.

Yes, it is inevitable for China to rise to a world power, especially economical superpower as Chinese does not believe "Gun and warship diplomacy", but develop sufficient advanced weapons to defend its economical power worldwide

中国通过一代“未受过良好教育的人”打造了今日的成就。中国的新一代受过良好的教育,能够与世界舞台上的任何国家进行竞争。

是的,中国崛起为世界强国,特别是经济超级大国是必然趋势,因为中国不相信“枪炮外交”,而是发展足够的先进武器来保卫自己在世界范围内的经济实力

 

Mohamed Ibrahim

I think it is inevitable and here is why I think it is, China’s economic developments are obvious by looking at it’s imposing skyscrapers in its eastern megacities and its investments on every continent on earth.

However what makes me think that china will continue on a rising path is because it has a track record in being able to storm the worst of the economic weathers, China’s economic resilience was evident from its rapid recovery of the 2008 economic crisis. Although the government’s nearly $600-billion stimulus package played a large role, huge credit goes to the entrepreneurial spirit and strong resolve of China’s 1.3 billion citizens. Their attitude is an indication of things to come.

In recent year’s new business leaders have emerged, consumer tastes have shifted, and the government instigated new policies to move China in a fresh directions. For example:

我认为这是不可避免的,这就是为什么我认为这是不可避免的,中国的经济发展是显而易见的,看看东部大城市的摩天大楼和它在地球上各大洲的投资就知道了。

然而,我认为,中国还将继续在崛起之路大跨步前进,因为它有能力应对最恶劣的经济环境,中国经济的强韧从2008年经济危机后的快速复苏中得到了明显体现。尽管中国近6,000亿美元的经济刺激计划发挥了很大作用,但这要归功于中国13亿公民的创业精神和坚强决心。他们的态度决定了未来的发展。

近年来,中国涌现出了新的商界领袖,消费者的口味发生了变化,政府也出台了新政策,将中国推向一个新的方向。例如:

  • China has become more open to outsiders, China now hosts more international brands than any other country.
  • China has improved its infrastructure and distribution. By 2030 china aims to create an expressway network which connects cities of 200,000 plus people.
  • Another area that favours china is its vast population. By 2020 around 60% of China will live in cities. Approximately 600 cities in China have a population of 500,000 plus people, and each one will grow in the future. This creates many wealthy regional markets all around china, and foreign firms should be excited about the expansion possibilities that this brings.
  • China has not always been known for its consumer culture but the economic advancements of the last 25 years have certainly changed that

It is always hard to predict the future but China is taking the rights steps forward

  • 中国对外界更加开放,中国现在拥有的国际品牌比其他任何国家都要多。
  • 中国改善了基础设施和分布。到2030年,中国将建成连接各个20万以上人口城市的高速公路网络。
  • 另一个有利于中国的因素是人口众多。到2020,中国大约60%的人口将居住在城市。中国大约有600个城市的人口超过50万人,而且每个城市未来还会继续增长。这在中国各地创造了许多充裕的区域市场,外国公司应该对此带来的扩张可能性感到兴奋。
  • 中国的消费文化并不出众,但过去25年的经济发展确实改变了这一点。

预测未来并不容易,但中国正朝着正确的方向前进

 

Arman Siani, lives in The United States of America

China is a nation with a billion people who have one of the world’s highest average IQs, who are extremely hard working, patriotic and ambitious, and don’t shy away from dreaming big.

It has a rich 5000 year old history, with meritocracy, rather than religious dogma and idealism, as its guiding principle. As someone else has correctly said, China is a civilization dressed as a country.

So, considering all this, China’s rise and dominance is indeed inevitable. Infact, it would be surprising if it’s NOT inevitable.

中国是一个拥有十亿人口的国家,平均智商是全球最高的国家之一,他们非常勤奋、爱国、雄心勃勃,从不退缩。

它有着五千年悠久的历史,其指导思想是精英政治,而不是宗教教条和理想主义。正如其他人所说,中国是一个扮成国家的文明。

因此,考虑到这一切,中国的崛起和优势确实是不可避免的。事实上,如果不是倒要让人惊讶了。

 

Abhineet Kaul, 10+ years helping companies grow business

I will give you a simple economic reason. China is not only growing alone, but is taking its neighbours with it in the development journey.

The chart below shows how Chinese tourists are changing the world of tourism. The closer you are to Mainland China, the higher is the dependence on Chinese tourists for both the total arrivals and the growth in arrivals. And this leads to high linkages between the culture, economy and politics of the countries. Similar linkages are available for trade and investment.

The economic co-dependence and collaboration ensures that other countries will support rise of China as well. And the last time when a country was supported by the global order, we had a superpower like the US.

Data sourced from respective Tourism Boards/National Statistics Board

我会给你一个简单的经济理由。中国不仅独自发展,而且在发展中也带动着邻国一起发展。

下图显示了中国游客是如何改变旅游业的。离中国大陆越近,入境游客总数和入境人数增长对中国游客的依赖程度就越高。这导致了各国文化、经济和政治之间的高度关联。贸易和投资也出现了类似的关联。

经济上的相互依存与合作,让其他国家也愿意支持中国的崛起。上一次有个国家得到了全球支持,那就是美国这样的超级大国。

数据来自各国旅游局/国家统计委员会

 

George Lee, lives in The United States of America

In proper perspective, in its 30+ centuries of history, China has been a superpower for all but about a handful of centuries, most of them recent. So it’s not like being a superpower is new to them.

It is a deliberate Western mis-translation that “China” means “Middle Kingdom”. The proper translation of “China”, in its intended meaning, is “Center Nation,” or “the Nation at the Center.” You can see why the Europeans mis-translated the name when they first came across it. Nowadays it doesn’t matter, of course.

从某个角度看,在长达三十多个世纪的历史长河中,中国一直是个超级大国,除了少数几个世纪,主要集中在近代的时间之外。所以超级大国对他们来说并不是什么新鲜事。

“中国”的意思是“中央王国”,这是西方人有意的误译。“中国”的正确翻译,在其原意应是“中心国家”或“处于世界中心的国家”。你可以理解为什么欧洲人第一次看到这个名字时就误译了。当然,现在已经无关紧要了。

 

John Duran, former Self Employed

Something that I hear within this China’s rise rhetoric involve fears that they will throw their weight around. You know, like us in the US! Maybe if we set a better example that wasn’t about just sounding selfish and demanding. And it would help if we didn’t police the planet but rather worked with our allies to further the human rights of all people. China’s rise is inevitable. I’d add, India’s rise is inevitable. Brazil, Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam, maybe a truly resurgent Russia one day and so on. Countries rise and fall and then flat-line and then revive. Point is what kind of world do we want? I say it should be one in which we all try pragmatic approaches to help each other prosper. Everything doesn’t have to end in conflict or war.

在中国崛起的说法中,我听出了一些担心,担心中国会仗势欺人。你知道,就像我们美国一样!也许,如果我们树立了更好的榜样,而非一味自私和苛刻就好了。中国的崛起是不可避免的。我还想说,印度的崛起也是不可避免的。巴西、非洲、印度尼西亚、越南等国,也许有一天俄罗斯也会真正复兴。国家兴衰,没落,然后复兴。关键是我们想要什么样的世界?我认为,我们应该采取务实的办法帮助彼此繁荣昌盛。任何事都无需通过冲突或战争来解决。

 

Thomas Musselman

Population size is not destiny. Look at the Netherlands and Singapore. China has a populations too large for its type of territory, which has oversalted soil and too little water (polluted and depleted aquifers). There is no guarantee that a large population will lead to wealth nor invention. Tiny Norway contributes as much to science as China does.

China’s increased wealth also is in large part due to bringing women into the work force and taking people out of non-productive agricultural labor. Its low labor cost advantage is ending and jobs fleeing to Bangladesh and Vietnam.

人口规模并非定数。看看荷兰和新加坡。中国的土地不适合供养如此庞大的人口,土地过度盐碱化,水资源匮乏(水被污染、含水层耗尽)。大量的人口也不一定就能创造财富、带来发明。弹丸之地挪威对科学的贡献与中国一般大。

中国财富的增长在很大程度上是因为妇女进入劳动力大军,人们脱离非生产性农业劳动。中国的低劳动力成本优势正在消失,工作岗位被转移至孟加拉国和越南。

 

Anonymous

Japan too looked unstoppable just a few decades ago. The Soviet union was projected to overtake the US economy in the early 80s. But conformism, demographics and disastrous economic policies proved fatal to both. China seems to have exactly these same problems only magnified many times over. It is relatively easy to produce phenomenal growth when you are just catching up and copying other economies but when it comes to innovating only an open, free and diverse society can deliver growth.

几十年前,日本看起来也是势不可挡的。80年代初期,苏联计划取代美国的经济地位,但是盲从因袭、人口结构和灾难性的经济政策对这两个国家都带来了致命的打击。中国似乎也遇到了一样的问题,但规模更是大上几倍。当你一味追赶和仿效其他经济体时,容易产生显著的增长,但是当涉及到创新时,只有开放、自由和多样化的社会才能带来真正的增长。

 

Mark Trimble, works at Federal Railroad Administration

No, because maintaining economic momentum in the *extremely* competitive global marketplace is tough, really tough, and it is dependent upon a stable and dependable workforce. The greater China’s economic success, the greater the pressure is to further extend freedom and opportunity within Chinese society generally. How successful the Chinese government remains in responding to this unrelenting pressure year after year will determine the duration and extent of its rise.

不,因为在竞争异常激烈的全球市场中保持经济势头是艰难的,真的很难,它依赖于稳定和可靠的劳动力。中国经济越成功,进一步扩大中国社会的自由和机遇的压力就越大。中国要如何成功地应对这种无情的压力,将决定其崛起的持续时间和程度。

 

Joe Patti

Surprised that I haven’t seen it mentioned that from a certain historical perspective, China’s rise is inevitable.

There is a view of Chinese history being cyclical with periods of union being followed by disunion which is then followed by a period of union again. This was something that was noted back in the 16th century in the novel, Romance of the Three Kingdoms.

While I agree that it is limiting to view Chinese history primarily through this lens, it is interesting to observe how this pattern manifested itself.

For instance, the end of the Tang Dynasty meant that Luoyang and Chang’an were no longer the center of power and influence. During the Five Dynasties and 10 Kingdoms and subsequent periods, the economic base became more diverse both geographically and in the types of products being produced.

Arguably the dissolution of Tang Dynasty power created conditions for the country (for lack of a better term) to become stronger.

我很吃惊,还没看到有人提到,从某种历史角度来看,中国的崛起是不可避免的。

有一种观点认为,中国的历史是周期性的合久必分,分久必合。16世纪的小说《三国演义》中就记载过这一点。

虽然我同意通过这个方面观察中国历史存在局限性,但是观察这种模式如何表现很有趣。

例如,唐朝的末期,洛阳和长安不再是权力和影响力的中心。在五朝十国及其后的时期,经济基础在地理和商品类型上变得更加具有多样化。

 

Peter Gould, former Widgit Inspector

Ask 1990-Japan about inevitible rise to supremacy.

China is dancing on a knife’s edge. Also, I read enough to strongly beleive that most Asians (and alot of Chinese) are also very are of this. 问问1990年代的日本吧,当时的日本就走在通往霸权的势不可挡的崛起之路上。

中国正在刀刃上跳舞。而且,我读了很多书,坚信大多数亚洲人(和许多中国人)都是如此认为。

 外文链接:https://www.quora.com/Is-Chinas-rise-inevitable

本文标签:中国崛起

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